Monthly Archives: June 2013

Predicting the Finals

What percentage chance do you give Miami to win the Finals? 60 percent? 70? 80?

What about each individual game? Do you give Miami an 80 percent shot to win every game of the series? Do you give the home team a 75 percent chance to win each game?

If we have odds for the individual games, we can calculate odds for the entire series. Here are some sample results:

Odds for each game: Miami wins series San Antonio wins series
Each game 50-50 50% 50%
Miami 60% to win every game 71.02% 28.98%
Home team 60% to win every game 53.2% 46.8%
Miami 70% at home, 60% on the road 81.31% 18.69%

The series odds may not be quite what you’d expect based on the individual game odds. But that’s the point of doing the math. If we’re right that Miami has a 60 percent chance to win each game, then their chances of winning the series are a little over 70 percent, not 60 percent. Likewise, if you think Miami has a 60 percent chance to win each game, then it doesn’t make sense to say they have an 80 percent chance to win the series.

So how do you do the math? I’ve saved you the work and created a quick & dirty Excel spreadsheet you can download and play with:

LINK

Here’s a screenshot:

FinalsPredictorScreenshot2

 

 

 

 

 

 

Using the spreadsheet is pretty simple. Input values are in yellow — just enter the percentage chance you give Miami to win each game. The final results show up in red. For example, here it is with the home team given a 70 percent chance to win each game:

FinalsPredictorScreenshot1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you want to see how the math is done, it’s all in hidden rows 17-34, which you’ll need to un-hide to see. There are more elegant ways to do the math, but as the title of the spreadsheet suggests, I used a quick & dirty method to put it together. Enjoy!

UPDATE: Since San Antonio won Game 1, I’ve updated the spreadsheet to reflect that in the input values. You can continue to use the tool to show the probabilities for the remainder of the series. I’ll try to keep the spreadsheet updated for the remainder of the Finals.